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Quantitative price forecasting for ERCOT

GridSignals publishes hourly price forecasts for the ERCOT market: what the real time price is expected to be at published settlement points, where congestion is expected and which constraint groups are likely to be behind it, and the next-day offer sheet the model itself issued. Forecasts are published with a coverage band rather than as a single number, each publication is recorded as it was made, and what was said beforehand stays readable afterwards.

What we publish

Real Time LMP Forecasts

Hour-by-hour forecasts of the real time locational marginal price at published ERCOT settlement points. A forecast is published as a coverage band rather than as a single number, so the width of the forecast is part of what is forecast. The horizon runs from the balance of the current day through the next delivery day, and each publication is recorded as it was made, so what was forecast — as it was forecast, at the time it was forecast — can be read back later beside what the market actually did.

  • Hourly forecasts at published settlement points, refreshed through the day
  • A coverage band on every published forecast, at a choice of coverage levels
  • Balance of day through the next delivery day, as one continuous view
  • The recorded history of what was published, as it was published

Congestion Forecasts

Forecast congestion by location, hour by hour, together with the constraint groups most likely to bind behind it. Groups are named and carry a banded likelihood rather than a bare probability. On delivered hours the realized congestion is shown beside the forecast that preceded it, so the forecast is read against the outcome and not on its own.

  • Hourly forecast congestion at published settlement points
  • The constraint groups likely to bind, named, with a banded likelihood
  • Realized congestion on delivered hours, beside the forecast that preceded it
  • No forecast is published for what a binding constraint would be worth: the model forecasts congestion and the groups behind it, and says nothing about the value of a constraint it has not seen bind

Trading

The next-day offer sheet as the model itself issued it: the price steps and shares it would have offered for each delivery hour. It is disclosed only after the day-ahead market has closed, never before, and it is disclosed at the vintage it was issued at rather than restated afterwards. Alongside it, the record of modeled results by delivery day.

  • The next-day model offer sheet, at the vintage it was issued
  • Disclosed only after the day-ahead market closes — never ahead of it
  • A record of modeled results by delivery day, with the status of each
  • Every figure stated against published market prices, and labelled as modeled

Access

preview — subscriptions not yet open

Signal

Real Time LMP Forecasts: hourly locational price forecasts with a coverage band on every published forecast, balance of day through the next delivery day, and the recorded history of what was published.

  • Real Time LMP Forecasts
  • Coverage bands at a choice of levels
  • The recorded history of what was published
Contact for accessPricing is not published while this tier is in preview.
preview — subscriptions not yet open

Desk

Everything in Signal, plus Congestion Forecasts: hourly forecast congestion by location, the constraint groups likely to bind, and what was realized on hours that have been delivered. This is the tier a 14-day trial opens.

  • Everything in Signal
  • Congestion Forecasts
  • Realized congestion on delivered hours
Contact for accessPricing is not published while this tier is in preview.
preview — subscriptions not yet open

Trading

Everything in Desk, plus Trading: the next-day model offer sheet, disclosed only after the day-ahead market closes, and the record of modeled results by delivery day. A trial does not open this tier; it is opened by subscription, and the form below is where to say you want it.

  • Everything in Desk
  • The next-day model offer sheet, after the day-ahead market closes
  • The record of modeled results, stated against published market prices
Contact for accessPricing is not published while this tier is in preview.

Request a 14-day trial

14-day trial: Real Time LMP + Congestion Forecasts

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